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Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy)
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| Zeitschriftentitel: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
|---|---|
| Personen und Körperschaften: | , , , , |
| In: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 18, 2018, 7, S. 2057-2079 |
| Format: | E-Article |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| veröffentlicht: |
Copernicus GmbH
|
| Schlagwörter: |
| author_facet |
Carisi, Francesca Schröter, Kai Domeneghetti, Alessio Kreibich, Heidi Castellarin, Attilio Carisi, Francesca Schröter, Kai Domeneghetti, Alessio Kreibich, Heidi Castellarin, Attilio |
|---|---|
| author |
Carisi, Francesca Schröter, Kai Domeneghetti, Alessio Kreibich, Heidi Castellarin, Attilio |
| spellingShingle |
Carisi, Francesca Schröter, Kai Domeneghetti, Alessio Kreibich, Heidi Castellarin, Attilio Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy) General Earth and Planetary Sciences |
| author_sort |
carisi, francesca |
| spelling |
Carisi, Francesca Schröter, Kai Domeneghetti, Alessio Kreibich, Heidi Castellarin, Attilio 1684-9981 Copernicus GmbH General Earth and Planetary Sciences http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018 <jats:p>Abstract. Flood loss models are one important source of uncertainty in flood risk assessments. Many countries experience sparseness or absence of comprehensive high-quality flood loss data, which is often rooted in a lack of protocols and reference procedures for compiling loss datasets after flood events. Such data are an important reference for developing and validating flood loss models. We consider the Secchia River flood event of January 2014, when a sudden levee breach caused the inundation of nearly 52 km2 in northern Italy. After this event local authorities collected a comprehensive flood loss dataset of affected private households including building footprints and structures and damages to buildings and contents. The dataset was enriched with further information compiled by us, including economic building values, maximum water depths, velocities and flood durations for each building. By analyzing this dataset we tackle the problem of flood damage estimation in Emilia-Romagna (Italy) by identifying empirical uni- and multivariable loss models for residential buildings and contents. The accuracy of the proposed models is compared with that of several flood damage models reported in the literature, providing additional insights into the transferability of the models among different contexts. Our results show that (1) even simple univariable damage models based on local data are significantly more accurate than literature models derived for different contexts; (2) multivariable models that consider several explanatory variables outperform univariable models, which use only water depth. However, multivariable models can only be effectively developed and applied if sufficient and detailed information is available. </jats:p> Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
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| title |
Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy) |
| title_unstemmed |
Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy) |
| title_full |
Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy) |
| title_fullStr |
Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy) |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy) |
| title_short |
Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy) |
| title_sort |
development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for emilia-romagna (italy) |
| topic |
General Earth and Planetary Sciences |
| url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018 |
| publishDate |
2018 |
| physical |
2057-2079 |
| description |
<jats:p>Abstract. Flood loss models are one important source of uncertainty in flood risk
assessments. Many countries experience sparseness or absence of comprehensive
high-quality flood loss data, which is often rooted in a lack of protocols and
reference procedures for compiling loss datasets after flood events. Such
data are an important reference for developing and validating flood loss
models. We consider the Secchia River flood event of January 2014, when a
sudden levee breach caused the inundation of nearly 52 km2 in northern
Italy. After this event local authorities collected a comprehensive flood
loss dataset of affected private households including building footprints and
structures and damages to buildings and contents. The dataset was enriched with
further information compiled by us, including economic building values,
maximum water depths, velocities and flood durations for each building. By
analyzing this dataset we tackle the problem of flood damage estimation in
Emilia-Romagna (Italy) by identifying empirical uni- and multivariable loss
models for residential buildings and contents. The accuracy of the proposed
models is compared with that of several flood damage models reported in the
literature, providing additional insights into the transferability of the
models among different contexts. Our results show that (1) even simple
univariable damage models based on local data are significantly more
accurate than literature models derived for different contexts;
(2) multivariable models that consider several explanatory variables
outperform univariable models, which use only water depth. However,
multivariable models can only be effectively developed and applied if
sufficient and detailed information is available.
</jats:p> |
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| author | Carisi, Francesca, Schröter, Kai, Domeneghetti, Alessio, Kreibich, Heidi, Castellarin, Attilio |
| author_facet | Carisi, Francesca, Schröter, Kai, Domeneghetti, Alessio, Kreibich, Heidi, Castellarin, Attilio, Carisi, Francesca, Schröter, Kai, Domeneghetti, Alessio, Kreibich, Heidi, Castellarin, Attilio |
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| description | <jats:p>Abstract. Flood loss models are one important source of uncertainty in flood risk assessments. Many countries experience sparseness or absence of comprehensive high-quality flood loss data, which is often rooted in a lack of protocols and reference procedures for compiling loss datasets after flood events. Such data are an important reference for developing and validating flood loss models. We consider the Secchia River flood event of January 2014, when a sudden levee breach caused the inundation of nearly 52 km2 in northern Italy. After this event local authorities collected a comprehensive flood loss dataset of affected private households including building footprints and structures and damages to buildings and contents. The dataset was enriched with further information compiled by us, including economic building values, maximum water depths, velocities and flood durations for each building. By analyzing this dataset we tackle the problem of flood damage estimation in Emilia-Romagna (Italy) by identifying empirical uni- and multivariable loss models for residential buildings and contents. The accuracy of the proposed models is compared with that of several flood damage models reported in the literature, providing additional insights into the transferability of the models among different contexts. Our results show that (1) even simple univariable damage models based on local data are significantly more accurate than literature models derived for different contexts; (2) multivariable models that consider several explanatory variables outperform univariable models, which use only water depth. However, multivariable models can only be effectively developed and applied if sufficient and detailed information is available. </jats:p> |
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| spelling | Carisi, Francesca Schröter, Kai Domeneghetti, Alessio Kreibich, Heidi Castellarin, Attilio 1684-9981 Copernicus GmbH General Earth and Planetary Sciences http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018 <jats:p>Abstract. Flood loss models are one important source of uncertainty in flood risk assessments. Many countries experience sparseness or absence of comprehensive high-quality flood loss data, which is often rooted in a lack of protocols and reference procedures for compiling loss datasets after flood events. Such data are an important reference for developing and validating flood loss models. We consider the Secchia River flood event of January 2014, when a sudden levee breach caused the inundation of nearly 52 km2 in northern Italy. After this event local authorities collected a comprehensive flood loss dataset of affected private households including building footprints and structures and damages to buildings and contents. The dataset was enriched with further information compiled by us, including economic building values, maximum water depths, velocities and flood durations for each building. By analyzing this dataset we tackle the problem of flood damage estimation in Emilia-Romagna (Italy) by identifying empirical uni- and multivariable loss models for residential buildings and contents. The accuracy of the proposed models is compared with that of several flood damage models reported in the literature, providing additional insights into the transferability of the models among different contexts. Our results show that (1) even simple univariable damage models based on local data are significantly more accurate than literature models derived for different contexts; (2) multivariable models that consider several explanatory variables outperform univariable models, which use only water depth. However, multivariable models can only be effectively developed and applied if sufficient and detailed information is available. </jats:p> Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy) Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
| spellingShingle | Carisi, Francesca, Schröter, Kai, Domeneghetti, Alessio, Kreibich, Heidi, Castellarin, Attilio, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy), General Earth and Planetary Sciences |
| title | Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy) |
| title_full | Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy) |
| title_fullStr | Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy) |
| title_short | Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy) |
| title_sort | development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for emilia-romagna (italy) |
| title_unstemmed | Development and assessment of uni- and multivariable flood loss models for Emilia-Romagna (Italy) |
| topic | General Earth and Planetary Sciences |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-18-2057-2018 |