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Verification of high‐resolution real‐time forecasts over the Alpine region during the MAP SOP
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| Zeitschriftentitel: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society |
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| Personen und Körperschaften: | , , , , , |
| In: | Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 129, 2003, 588, S. 587-607 |
| Format: | E-Article |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| veröffentlicht: |
Wiley
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| Schlagwörter: |
| Zusammenfassung: | <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>An analysis is presented of the MM5 high‐resolution operational weather forecasts performed during the Special Observing Period (SOP) of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP). The domain‐averaged model biases of both surface pressure and 2 m temperature suggest MM5 shortcomings related to the surface temperature cycle. The root mean square errors (r.m.s.e.s) for temperature, wind and relative humidity at two different levels and for several forecast times support this finding. The model results show difficulties in forecasting the 2 m temperature during periods of fair weather; furthermore, a few difficulties are found in forecasting the minimum of the temperature for regions under strong marine influence, such as Baleari station. The equitable threat score (ETS), for a few selected IOPs (Intensive Observing Periods) having precipitation over the Po Valley, is used together with the areal distribution of the r.m.s.e.s to evaluate the MM5 at high resolution over the Alpine region. The results show reasonable skill in this region when the model is used in the high‐resolution mode. The ETS using only the stations over the mountains or the plains, suggests a better model skill in the mountain areas than in the valley; whereas the r.m.s.e.s show an MM5 tendency to produce larger errors on the eastern side of the Po Valley than on the western side.</jats:p><jats:p>Finally, the analysis of the precipitation time series for IOP 2b, at a few selected stations, confirms the model tendency to underestimate the rainfall at stations located along the Po Valley and to shorten the period of the precipitation. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.</jats:p> |
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| Umfang: | 587-607 |
| ISSN: |
0035-9009
1477-870X |
| DOI: | 10.1256/qj.02.41 |