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An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one‐dimensional CESE‐HD solar wind model
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| Zeitschriftentitel: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics |
|---|---|
| Personen und Körperschaften: | , , , , |
| In: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 114, 2009, A10 |
| Format: | E-Article |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| veröffentlicht: |
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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| Schlagwörter: |
| author_facet |
Feng, X. S. Zhang, Y. Yang, L. P. Wu, S. T. Dryer, M. Feng, X. S. Zhang, Y. Yang, L. P. Wu, S. T. Dryer, M. |
|---|---|
| author |
Feng, X. S. Zhang, Y. Yang, L. P. Wu, S. T. Dryer, M. |
| spellingShingle |
Feng, X. S. Zhang, Y. Yang, L. P. Wu, S. T. Dryer, M. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one‐dimensional CESE‐HD solar wind model Paleontology Space and Planetary Science Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Atmospheric Science Earth-Surface Processes Geochemistry and Petrology Soil Science Water Science and Technology Ecology Aquatic Science Forestry Oceanography Geophysics |
| author_sort |
feng, x. s. |
| spelling |
Feng, X. S. Zhang, Y. Yang, L. P. Wu, S. T. Dryer, M. 0148-0227 American Geophysical Union (AGU) Paleontology Space and Planetary Science Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Atmospheric Science Earth-Surface Processes Geochemistry and Petrology Soil Science Water Science and Technology Ecology Aquatic Science Forestry Oceanography Geophysics http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009ja014385 <jats:p>With the purpose of operational real‐time forecasting for arrival times of flare/coronal mass ejection associated shocks in the vicinity of the Earth, a one‐dimensional hydrodynamic (HD) shock propagation model is established by a novel numerical scheme, the space‐time conservation element and solution element (CESE) method. The required observational data inputs to this new one‐dimensional CESE‐HD model are the low coronal radio Type II drift speed, the duration estimation, and the background solar wind speed for a solar eruptive event. Applying this model to 137 solar events during the period of February 1997 to August 2002, it is found that our model could be practically equivalent to the STOA, ISPM, HAFv.2, and SPM models in forecasting the shock arrival time. The absolute error in the transit time from our model is not larger than those of the other four models for the same set of events. These results may demonstrate the potential capability of our model in terms of improving real‐time forecasting because the CESE method can be extended to three‐dimensional magnetohydrodynamics (3D‐MHD) from the solar photosphere to any heliospheric position.</jats:p> An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one‐dimensional CESE‐HD solar wind model Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics |
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10.1029/2009ja014385 |
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Allgemeine Naturwissenschaft Physik Technik Geologie und Paläontologie Geographie Chemie und Pharmazie Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Gartenbau, Fischereiwirtschaft, Hauswirtschaft Biologie |
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| title |
An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one‐dimensional CESE‐HD solar wind model |
| title_unstemmed |
An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one‐dimensional CESE‐HD solar wind model |
| title_full |
An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one‐dimensional CESE‐HD solar wind model |
| title_fullStr |
An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one‐dimensional CESE‐HD solar wind model |
| title_full_unstemmed |
An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one‐dimensional CESE‐HD solar wind model |
| title_short |
An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one‐dimensional CESE‐HD solar wind model |
| title_sort |
an operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one‐dimensional cese‐hd solar wind model |
| topic |
Paleontology Space and Planetary Science Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Atmospheric Science Earth-Surface Processes Geochemistry and Petrology Soil Science Water Science and Technology Ecology Aquatic Science Forestry Oceanography Geophysics |
| url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009ja014385 |
| publishDate |
2009 |
| physical |
|
| description |
<jats:p>With the purpose of operational real‐time forecasting for arrival times of flare/coronal mass ejection associated shocks in the vicinity of the Earth, a one‐dimensional hydrodynamic (HD) shock propagation model is established by a novel numerical scheme, the space‐time conservation element and solution element (CESE) method. The required observational data inputs to this new one‐dimensional CESE‐HD model are the low coronal radio Type II drift speed, the duration estimation, and the background solar wind speed for a solar eruptive event. Applying this model to 137 solar events during the period of February 1997 to August 2002, it is found that our model could be practically equivalent to the STOA, ISPM, HAFv.2, and SPM models in forecasting the shock arrival time. The absolute error in the transit time from our model is not larger than those of the other four models for the same set of events. These results may demonstrate the potential capability of our model in terms of improving real‐time forecasting because the CESE method can be extended to three‐dimensional magnetohydrodynamics (3D‐MHD) from the solar photosphere to any heliospheric position.</jats:p> |
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| author | Feng, X. S., Zhang, Y., Yang, L. P., Wu, S. T., Dryer, M. |
| author_facet | Feng, X. S., Zhang, Y., Yang, L. P., Wu, S. T., Dryer, M., Feng, X. S., Zhang, Y., Yang, L. P., Wu, S. T., Dryer, M. |
| author_sort | feng, x. s. |
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| description | <jats:p>With the purpose of operational real‐time forecasting for arrival times of flare/coronal mass ejection associated shocks in the vicinity of the Earth, a one‐dimensional hydrodynamic (HD) shock propagation model is established by a novel numerical scheme, the space‐time conservation element and solution element (CESE) method. The required observational data inputs to this new one‐dimensional CESE‐HD model are the low coronal radio Type II drift speed, the duration estimation, and the background solar wind speed for a solar eruptive event. Applying this model to 137 solar events during the period of February 1997 to August 2002, it is found that our model could be practically equivalent to the STOA, ISPM, HAFv.2, and SPM models in forecasting the shock arrival time. The absolute error in the transit time from our model is not larger than those of the other four models for the same set of events. These results may demonstrate the potential capability of our model in terms of improving real‐time forecasting because the CESE method can be extended to three‐dimensional magnetohydrodynamics (3D‐MHD) from the solar photosphere to any heliospheric position.</jats:p> |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1029/2009ja014385 |
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| finc_class_facet | Allgemeine Naturwissenschaft, Physik, Technik, Geologie und Paläontologie, Geographie, Chemie und Pharmazie, Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Gartenbau, Fischereiwirtschaft, Hauswirtschaft, Biologie |
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| imprint_str_mv | American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2009 |
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| physical | |
| publishDate | 2009 |
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| publisher | American Geophysical Union (AGU) |
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| series | Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics |
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| spelling | Feng, X. S. Zhang, Y. Yang, L. P. Wu, S. T. Dryer, M. 0148-0227 American Geophysical Union (AGU) Paleontology Space and Planetary Science Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Atmospheric Science Earth-Surface Processes Geochemistry and Petrology Soil Science Water Science and Technology Ecology Aquatic Science Forestry Oceanography Geophysics http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009ja014385 <jats:p>With the purpose of operational real‐time forecasting for arrival times of flare/coronal mass ejection associated shocks in the vicinity of the Earth, a one‐dimensional hydrodynamic (HD) shock propagation model is established by a novel numerical scheme, the space‐time conservation element and solution element (CESE) method. The required observational data inputs to this new one‐dimensional CESE‐HD model are the low coronal radio Type II drift speed, the duration estimation, and the background solar wind speed for a solar eruptive event. Applying this model to 137 solar events during the period of February 1997 to August 2002, it is found that our model could be practically equivalent to the STOA, ISPM, HAFv.2, and SPM models in forecasting the shock arrival time. The absolute error in the transit time from our model is not larger than those of the other four models for the same set of events. These results may demonstrate the potential capability of our model in terms of improving real‐time forecasting because the CESE method can be extended to three‐dimensional magnetohydrodynamics (3D‐MHD) from the solar photosphere to any heliospheric position.</jats:p> An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one‐dimensional CESE‐HD solar wind model Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics |
| spellingShingle | Feng, X. S., Zhang, Y., Yang, L. P., Wu, S. T., Dryer, M., Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one‐dimensional CESE‐HD solar wind model, Paleontology, Space and Planetary Science, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), Atmospheric Science, Earth-Surface Processes, Geochemistry and Petrology, Soil Science, Water Science and Technology, Ecology, Aquatic Science, Forestry, Oceanography, Geophysics |
| title | An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one‐dimensional CESE‐HD solar wind model |
| title_full | An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one‐dimensional CESE‐HD solar wind model |
| title_fullStr | An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one‐dimensional CESE‐HD solar wind model |
| title_full_unstemmed | An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one‐dimensional CESE‐HD solar wind model |
| title_short | An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one‐dimensional CESE‐HD solar wind model |
| title_sort | an operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one‐dimensional cese‐hd solar wind model |
| title_unstemmed | An operational method for shock arrival time prediction by one‐dimensional CESE‐HD solar wind model |
| topic | Paleontology, Space and Planetary Science, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), Atmospheric Science, Earth-Surface Processes, Geochemistry and Petrology, Soil Science, Water Science and Technology, Ecology, Aquatic Science, Forestry, Oceanography, Geophysics |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009ja014385 |