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Future Arctic Ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms
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| Zeitschriftentitel: | Global Biogeochemical Cycles |
|---|---|
| Personen und Körperschaften: | , , , , , , |
| In: | Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 27, 2013, 3, S. 605-619 |
| Format: | E-Article |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| veröffentlicht: |
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
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| Schlagwörter: |
| author_facet |
Vancoppenolle, Martin Bopp, Laurent Madec, Gurvan Dunne, John Ilyina, Tatiana Halloran, Paul R. Steiner, Nadja Vancoppenolle, Martin Bopp, Laurent Madec, Gurvan Dunne, John Ilyina, Tatiana Halloran, Paul R. Steiner, Nadja |
|---|---|
| author |
Vancoppenolle, Martin Bopp, Laurent Madec, Gurvan Dunne, John Ilyina, Tatiana Halloran, Paul R. Steiner, Nadja |
| spellingShingle |
Vancoppenolle, Martin Bopp, Laurent Madec, Gurvan Dunne, John Ilyina, Tatiana Halloran, Paul R. Steiner, Nadja Global Biogeochemical Cycles Future Arctic Ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms Atmospheric Science General Environmental Science Environmental Chemistry Global and Planetary Change |
| author_sort |
vancoppenolle, martin |
| spelling |
Vancoppenolle, Martin Bopp, Laurent Madec, Gurvan Dunne, John Ilyina, Tatiana Halloran, Paul R. Steiner, Nadja 0886-6236 1944-9224 American Geophysical Union (AGU) Atmospheric Science General Environmental Science Environmental Chemistry Global and Planetary Change http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/gbc.20055 <jats:p>Net Arctic Ocean primary production (PP) is expected to increase over this century, due to less perennial sea ice and more available light, but could decrease depending on changes in nitrate (NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub>) supply. Here Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations performed with 11 Earth System Models are analyzed in terms of PP, surface NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub>, and sea ice coverage over 1900–2100. Whereas the mean model simulates reasonably well Arctic‐integrated PP (511 TgC/yr, 1998–2005) and projects a mild 58 TgC/yr increase by 2080–2099 for the strongest climate change scenario, models do not agree on the sign of future PP change. However, similar mechanisms operate in all models. The perennial ice loss‐driven increase in PP is in most models NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub>‐limited. The Arctic surface NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub> is decreasing over the 21st century (−2.3 ± 1 mmol/m<jats:sup>3</jats:sup>), associated with shoaling mixed layer and with decreasing NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub> in the nearby North Atlantic and Pacific waters. However, the intermodel spread in the degree of NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub> limitation is initially high, resulting from >1000 year spin‐up simulations. This initial NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub> spread, combined with the trend, causes a large variation in the timing of oligotrophy onset—which directly controls the sign of future PP change. Virtually all models agree in the open ocean zones on more spatially integrated PP and less PP per unit area. The source of model uncertainty is located in the sea ice zone, where a subtle balance between light and nutrient limitations determines the PP change. Hence, it is argued that reducing uncertainty on present Arctic NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub> in the sea ice zone would render Arctic PP projections much more consistent.</jats:p> Future Arctic Ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms Global Biogeochemical Cycles |
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| title |
Future Arctic Ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms |
| title_unstemmed |
Future Arctic Ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms |
| title_full |
Future Arctic Ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms |
| title_fullStr |
Future Arctic Ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Future Arctic Ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms |
| title_short |
Future Arctic Ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms |
| title_sort |
future arctic ocean primary productivity from cmip5 simulations: uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms |
| topic |
Atmospheric Science General Environmental Science Environmental Chemistry Global and Planetary Change |
| url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/gbc.20055 |
| publishDate |
2013 |
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605-619 |
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<jats:p>Net Arctic Ocean primary production (PP) is expected to increase over this century, due to less perennial sea ice and more available light, but could decrease depending on changes in nitrate (NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub>) supply. Here Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations performed with 11 Earth System Models are analyzed in terms of PP, surface NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub>, and sea ice coverage over 1900–2100. Whereas the mean model simulates reasonably well Arctic‐integrated PP (511 TgC/yr, 1998–2005) and projects a mild 58 TgC/yr increase by 2080–2099 for the strongest climate change scenario, models do not agree on the sign of future PP change. However, similar mechanisms operate in all models. The perennial ice loss‐driven increase in PP is in most models NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub>‐limited. The Arctic surface NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub> is decreasing over the 21st century (−2.3 ± 1 mmol/m<jats:sup>3</jats:sup>), associated with shoaling mixed layer and with decreasing NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub> in the nearby North Atlantic and Pacific waters. However, the intermodel spread in the degree of NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub> limitation is initially high, resulting from >1000 year spin‐up simulations. This initial NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub> spread, combined with the trend, causes a large variation in the timing of oligotrophy onset—which directly controls the sign of future PP change. Virtually all models agree in the open ocean zones on more spatially integrated PP and less PP per unit area. The source of model uncertainty is located in the sea ice zone, where a subtle balance between light and nutrient limitations determines the PP change. Hence, it is argued that reducing uncertainty on present Arctic NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub> in the sea ice zone would render Arctic PP projections much more consistent.</jats:p> |
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| author | Vancoppenolle, Martin, Bopp, Laurent, Madec, Gurvan, Dunne, John, Ilyina, Tatiana, Halloran, Paul R., Steiner, Nadja |
| author_facet | Vancoppenolle, Martin, Bopp, Laurent, Madec, Gurvan, Dunne, John, Ilyina, Tatiana, Halloran, Paul R., Steiner, Nadja, Vancoppenolle, Martin, Bopp, Laurent, Madec, Gurvan, Dunne, John, Ilyina, Tatiana, Halloran, Paul R., Steiner, Nadja |
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| description | <jats:p>Net Arctic Ocean primary production (PP) is expected to increase over this century, due to less perennial sea ice and more available light, but could decrease depending on changes in nitrate (NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub>) supply. Here Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations performed with 11 Earth System Models are analyzed in terms of PP, surface NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub>, and sea ice coverage over 1900–2100. Whereas the mean model simulates reasonably well Arctic‐integrated PP (511 TgC/yr, 1998–2005) and projects a mild 58 TgC/yr increase by 2080–2099 for the strongest climate change scenario, models do not agree on the sign of future PP change. However, similar mechanisms operate in all models. The perennial ice loss‐driven increase in PP is in most models NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub>‐limited. The Arctic surface NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub> is decreasing over the 21st century (−2.3 ± 1 mmol/m<jats:sup>3</jats:sup>), associated with shoaling mixed layer and with decreasing NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub> in the nearby North Atlantic and Pacific waters. However, the intermodel spread in the degree of NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub> limitation is initially high, resulting from >1000 year spin‐up simulations. This initial NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub> spread, combined with the trend, causes a large variation in the timing of oligotrophy onset—which directly controls the sign of future PP change. Virtually all models agree in the open ocean zones on more spatially integrated PP and less PP per unit area. The source of model uncertainty is located in the sea ice zone, where a subtle balance between light and nutrient limitations determines the PP change. Hence, it is argued that reducing uncertainty on present Arctic NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub> in the sea ice zone would render Arctic PP projections much more consistent.</jats:p> |
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| spelling | Vancoppenolle, Martin Bopp, Laurent Madec, Gurvan Dunne, John Ilyina, Tatiana Halloran, Paul R. Steiner, Nadja 0886-6236 1944-9224 American Geophysical Union (AGU) Atmospheric Science General Environmental Science Environmental Chemistry Global and Planetary Change http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/gbc.20055 <jats:p>Net Arctic Ocean primary production (PP) is expected to increase over this century, due to less perennial sea ice and more available light, but could decrease depending on changes in nitrate (NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub>) supply. Here Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations performed with 11 Earth System Models are analyzed in terms of PP, surface NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub>, and sea ice coverage over 1900–2100. Whereas the mean model simulates reasonably well Arctic‐integrated PP (511 TgC/yr, 1998–2005) and projects a mild 58 TgC/yr increase by 2080–2099 for the strongest climate change scenario, models do not agree on the sign of future PP change. However, similar mechanisms operate in all models. The perennial ice loss‐driven increase in PP is in most models NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub>‐limited. The Arctic surface NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub> is decreasing over the 21st century (−2.3 ± 1 mmol/m<jats:sup>3</jats:sup>), associated with shoaling mixed layer and with decreasing NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub> in the nearby North Atlantic and Pacific waters. However, the intermodel spread in the degree of NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub> limitation is initially high, resulting from >1000 year spin‐up simulations. This initial NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub> spread, combined with the trend, causes a large variation in the timing of oligotrophy onset—which directly controls the sign of future PP change. Virtually all models agree in the open ocean zones on more spatially integrated PP and less PP per unit area. The source of model uncertainty is located in the sea ice zone, where a subtle balance between light and nutrient limitations determines the PP change. Hence, it is argued that reducing uncertainty on present Arctic NO<jats:sub>3</jats:sub> in the sea ice zone would render Arctic PP projections much more consistent.</jats:p> Future Arctic Ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms Global Biogeochemical Cycles |
| spellingShingle | Vancoppenolle, Martin, Bopp, Laurent, Madec, Gurvan, Dunne, John, Ilyina, Tatiana, Halloran, Paul R., Steiner, Nadja, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Future Arctic Ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms, Atmospheric Science, General Environmental Science, Environmental Chemistry, Global and Planetary Change |
| title | Future Arctic Ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms |
| title_full | Future Arctic Ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms |
| title_fullStr | Future Arctic Ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms |
| title_full_unstemmed | Future Arctic Ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms |
| title_short | Future Arctic Ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms |
| title_sort | future arctic ocean primary productivity from cmip5 simulations: uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms |
| title_unstemmed | Future Arctic Ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms |
| topic | Atmospheric Science, General Environmental Science, Environmental Chemistry, Global and Planetary Change |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/gbc.20055 |