Eintrag weiter verarbeiten
Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Depending on Rarity
Gespeichert in:
| Zeitschriftentitel: | Earth's Future |
|---|---|
| Personen und Körperschaften: | , , , , , |
| In: | Earth's Future, 6, 2018, 5, S. 704-715 |
| Format: | E-Article |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| veröffentlicht: |
Wiley
|
| Schlagwörter: |
| author_facet |
Kharin, V. V. Flato, G. M. Zhang, X. Gillett, N. P. Zwiers, F. Anderson, K. J. Kharin, V. V. Flato, G. M. Zhang, X. Gillett, N. P. Zwiers, F. Anderson, K. J. |
|---|---|
| author |
Kharin, V. V. Flato, G. M. Zhang, X. Gillett, N. P. Zwiers, F. Anderson, K. J. |
| spellingShingle |
Kharin, V. V. Flato, G. M. Zhang, X. Gillett, N. P. Zwiers, F. Anderson, K. J. Earth's Future Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Depending on Rarity Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) General Environmental Science |
| author_sort |
kharin, v. v. |
| spelling |
Kharin, V. V. Flato, G. M. Zhang, X. Gillett, N. P. Zwiers, F. Anderson, K. J. 2328-4277 2328-4277 Wiley Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) General Environmental Science http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2018ef000813 <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have agreed to hold the “increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.” Comparison of the costs and benefits for different warming limits requires an understanding of how risks vary between warming limits. As changes in risk are often associated with changes in exposure due to projected changes in local or regional climate extremes, we analyze differences in the risks of extreme daily temperatures and extreme daily precipitation amounts under different warming limits. We show that global warming of 2°C would result in substantially larger changes in the probabilities of the extreme events than global warming of 1.5°C. For example, over the global land area, the probability of a warm extreme that occurs once every 20 years on average in the current climate is projected to increase 130% and 340% at the 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming levels, respectively (median values). Moreover, the relative changes in probability are larger for rarer, more extreme events, implying that risk assessments need to carefully consider the extreme event thresholds at which vulnerabilities occur.</jats:p> Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Depending on Rarity Earth's Future |
| doi_str_mv |
10.1002/2018ef000813 |
| facet_avail |
Online Free |
| finc_class_facet |
Geologie und Paläontologie Geographie |
| format |
ElectronicArticle |
| fullrecord |
blob:ai-49-aHR0cDovL2R4LmRvaS5vcmcvMTAuMTAwMi8yMDE4ZWYwMDA4MTM |
| id |
ai-49-aHR0cDovL2R4LmRvaS5vcmcvMTAuMTAwMi8yMDE4ZWYwMDA4MTM |
| institution |
DE-15 DE-Pl11 DE-Rs1 DE-105 DE-14 DE-Ch1 DE-L229 DE-D275 DE-Bn3 DE-Brt1 DE-Zwi2 DE-D161 DE-Gla1 DE-Zi4 |
| imprint |
Wiley, 2018 |
| imprint_str_mv |
Wiley, 2018 |
| issn |
2328-4277 |
| issn_str_mv |
2328-4277 |
| language |
English |
| mega_collection |
Wiley (CrossRef) |
| match_str |
kharin2018risksfromclimateextremeschangedifferentlyfrom15degcto20degcdependingonrarity |
| publishDateSort |
2018 |
| publisher |
Wiley |
| recordtype |
ai |
| record_format |
ai |
| series |
Earth's Future |
| source_id |
49 |
| title |
Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Depending on Rarity |
| title_unstemmed |
Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Depending on Rarity |
| title_full |
Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Depending on Rarity |
| title_fullStr |
Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Depending on Rarity |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Depending on Rarity |
| title_short |
Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Depending on Rarity |
| title_sort |
risks from climate extremes change differently from 1.5°c to 2.0°c depending on rarity |
| topic |
Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) General Environmental Science |
| url |
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2018ef000813 |
| publishDate |
2018 |
| physical |
704-715 |
| description |
<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have agreed to hold the “increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.” Comparison of the costs and benefits for different warming limits requires an understanding of how risks vary between warming limits. As changes in risk are often associated with changes in exposure due to projected changes in local or regional climate extremes, we analyze differences in the risks of extreme daily temperatures and extreme daily precipitation amounts under different warming limits. We show that global warming of 2°C would result in substantially larger changes in the probabilities of the extreme events than global warming of 1.5°C. For example, over the global land area, the probability of a warm extreme that occurs once every 20 years on average in the current climate is projected to increase 130% and 340% at the 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming levels, respectively (median values). Moreover, the relative changes in probability are larger for rarer, more extreme events, implying that risk assessments need to carefully consider the extreme event thresholds at which vulnerabilities occur.</jats:p> |
| container_issue |
5 |
| container_start_page |
704 |
| container_title |
Earth's Future |
| container_volume |
6 |
| format_de105 |
Article, E-Article |
| format_de14 |
Article, E-Article |
| format_de15 |
Article, E-Article |
| format_de520 |
Article, E-Article |
| format_de540 |
Article, E-Article |
| format_dech1 |
Article, E-Article |
| format_ded117 |
Article, E-Article |
| format_degla1 |
E-Article |
| format_del152 |
Buch |
| format_del189 |
Article, E-Article |
| format_dezi4 |
Article |
| format_dezwi2 |
Article, E-Article |
| format_finc |
Article, E-Article |
| format_nrw |
Article, E-Article |
| _version_ |
1792348679231766536 |
| geogr_code |
not assigned |
| last_indexed |
2024-03-01T18:14:32.94Z |
| geogr_code_person |
not assigned |
| openURL |
url_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_ver=Z39.88-2004&ctx_enc=info%3Aofi%2Fenc%3AUTF-8&rfr_id=info%3Asid%2Fvufind.svn.sourceforge.net%3Agenerator&rft.title=Risks+from+Climate+Extremes+Change+Differently+from+1.5%C2%B0C+to+2.0%C2%B0C+Depending+on+Rarity&rft.date=2018-05-01&genre=article&issn=2328-4277&volume=6&issue=5&spage=704&epage=715&pages=704-715&jtitle=Earth%27s+Future&atitle=Risks+from+Climate+Extremes+Change+Differently+from+1.5%C2%B0C+to+2.0%C2%B0C+Depending+on+Rarity&aulast=Anderson&aufirst=K.+J.&rft_id=info%3Adoi%2F10.1002%2F2018ef000813&rft.language%5B0%5D=eng |
| SOLR | |
| _version_ | 1792348679231766536 |
| author | Kharin, V. V., Flato, G. M., Zhang, X., Gillett, N. P., Zwiers, F., Anderson, K. J. |
| author_facet | Kharin, V. V., Flato, G. M., Zhang, X., Gillett, N. P., Zwiers, F., Anderson, K. J., Kharin, V. V., Flato, G. M., Zhang, X., Gillett, N. P., Zwiers, F., Anderson, K. J. |
| author_sort | kharin, v. v. |
| container_issue | 5 |
| container_start_page | 704 |
| container_title | Earth's Future |
| container_volume | 6 |
| description | <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have agreed to hold the “increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.” Comparison of the costs and benefits for different warming limits requires an understanding of how risks vary between warming limits. As changes in risk are often associated with changes in exposure due to projected changes in local or regional climate extremes, we analyze differences in the risks of extreme daily temperatures and extreme daily precipitation amounts under different warming limits. We show that global warming of 2°C would result in substantially larger changes in the probabilities of the extreme events than global warming of 1.5°C. For example, over the global land area, the probability of a warm extreme that occurs once every 20 years on average in the current climate is projected to increase 130% and 340% at the 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming levels, respectively (median values). Moreover, the relative changes in probability are larger for rarer, more extreme events, implying that risk assessments need to carefully consider the extreme event thresholds at which vulnerabilities occur.</jats:p> |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1002/2018ef000813 |
| facet_avail | Online, Free |
| finc_class_facet | Geologie und Paläontologie, Geographie |
| format | ElectronicArticle |
| format_de105 | Article, E-Article |
| format_de14 | Article, E-Article |
| format_de15 | Article, E-Article |
| format_de520 | Article, E-Article |
| format_de540 | Article, E-Article |
| format_dech1 | Article, E-Article |
| format_ded117 | Article, E-Article |
| format_degla1 | E-Article |
| format_del152 | Buch |
| format_del189 | Article, E-Article |
| format_dezi4 | Article |
| format_dezwi2 | Article, E-Article |
| format_finc | Article, E-Article |
| format_nrw | Article, E-Article |
| geogr_code | not assigned |
| geogr_code_person | not assigned |
| id | ai-49-aHR0cDovL2R4LmRvaS5vcmcvMTAuMTAwMi8yMDE4ZWYwMDA4MTM |
| imprint | Wiley, 2018 |
| imprint_str_mv | Wiley, 2018 |
| institution | DE-15, DE-Pl11, DE-Rs1, DE-105, DE-14, DE-Ch1, DE-L229, DE-D275, DE-Bn3, DE-Brt1, DE-Zwi2, DE-D161, DE-Gla1, DE-Zi4 |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| issn_str_mv | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-01T18:14:32.94Z |
| match_str | kharin2018risksfromclimateextremeschangedifferentlyfrom15degcto20degcdependingonrarity |
| mega_collection | Wiley (CrossRef) |
| physical | 704-715 |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publishDateSort | 2018 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | ai |
| recordtype | ai |
| series | Earth's Future |
| source_id | 49 |
| spelling | Kharin, V. V. Flato, G. M. Zhang, X. Gillett, N. P. Zwiers, F. Anderson, K. J. 2328-4277 2328-4277 Wiley Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) General Environmental Science http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2018ef000813 <jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change have agreed to hold the “increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above preindustrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C.” Comparison of the costs and benefits for different warming limits requires an understanding of how risks vary between warming limits. As changes in risk are often associated with changes in exposure due to projected changes in local or regional climate extremes, we analyze differences in the risks of extreme daily temperatures and extreme daily precipitation amounts under different warming limits. We show that global warming of 2°C would result in substantially larger changes in the probabilities of the extreme events than global warming of 1.5°C. For example, over the global land area, the probability of a warm extreme that occurs once every 20 years on average in the current climate is projected to increase 130% and 340% at the 1.5°C and 2.0°C warming levels, respectively (median values). Moreover, the relative changes in probability are larger for rarer, more extreme events, implying that risk assessments need to carefully consider the extreme event thresholds at which vulnerabilities occur.</jats:p> Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Depending on Rarity Earth's Future |
| spellingShingle | Kharin, V. V., Flato, G. M., Zhang, X., Gillett, N. P., Zwiers, F., Anderson, K. J., Earth's Future, Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Depending on Rarity, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), General Environmental Science |
| title | Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Depending on Rarity |
| title_full | Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Depending on Rarity |
| title_fullStr | Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Depending on Rarity |
| title_full_unstemmed | Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Depending on Rarity |
| title_short | Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Depending on Rarity |
| title_sort | risks from climate extremes change differently from 1.5°c to 2.0°c depending on rarity |
| title_unstemmed | Risks from Climate Extremes Change Differently from 1.5°C to 2.0°C Depending on Rarity |
| topic | Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), General Environmental Science |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2018ef000813 |