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The impact of political instability driven by the Tunisian revolution on the relationship between Google search queries index and financial market dynamics

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Veröffentlicht in: Journal of capital markets studies 4(2020), 1, Seite 61-76
Personen und Körperschaften: Trichilli, Yousra (VerfasserIn), Abbes, Mouna Boujelbène (VerfasserIn), Zouari, Sabrine (VerfasserIn)
Titel: The impact of political instability driven by the Tunisian revolution on the relationship between Google search queries index and financial market dynamics/ Yousra Trichilli, Mouna Boujelbène Abbes and Sabrine Zouari
Format: E-Book-Kapitel
Sprache: Englisch
veröffentlicht:
2020
Gesamtaufnahme: : Journal of capital markets studies, 4(2020), 1, Seite 61-76
, volume:4
Schlagwörter:
Quelle: Verbunddaten SWB
Lizenzfreie Online-Ressourcen
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contents Purpose This paper examines the impact of political instability on the investors' behavior, measured by Google search queries, and on the dynamics of stock market returns. Design/methodology/approach First, by using the DCC-GARCH model, the authors examine the effect of investor sentiment on the Tunisian stock market return. Second, the authors employ the fully modified dynamic ordinary least square method (FMOL) to estimate the long-term relationship between investor sentiment and Tunisian stock market return. Finally, the authors use the wavelet coherence model to test the co-movement between investor sentiment measured by Google Trends and Tunisian stock market return. Findings Using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC), the authors find that Google search queries index has the ability to reflect political events especially the Tunisian revolution. In addition, empirical results of fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) method reveal that Google search queries index has a slightly higher effect on Tunindex return after the Tunisian revolution than before this revolution. Furthermore, by employing wavelet coherence model, the authors find strong comovement between Google search queries index and return index during the period of the Tunisian revolution political instability. Moreover, in the frequency domain, strong coherence can be found in less than four months and in 16-32 months during the Tunisian revolution which show that the Google search queries measure was leading over Tunindex return. In fact, wavelet coherence analysis confirms the result of DCC that Google search queries index has the ability to detect the behavior of Tunisian investors especially during the period of political instability. Research limitations/implications This study provides empirical evidence to portfolio managers that may use Google search queries index as a robust measure of investor's sentiment to select a suitable investment and to make an optimal investments decisions. Originality/value The important research question of how political instability affects stock market dynamics has been neglected by scholars. This paper attempts principally to fill this void by investigating the time-varying interactions between market returns, volatility and Google search based index, especially during Tunisian revolution.
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spelling Trichilli, Yousra VerfasserIn aut, The impact of political instability driven by the Tunisian revolution on the relationship between Google search queries index and financial market dynamics Yousra Trichilli, Mouna Boujelbène Abbes and Sabrine Zouari, 2020, Text txt rdacontent, Computermedien c rdamedia, Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier, DE-206 Open Access Controlled Vocabulary for Access Rights http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2, Purpose This paper examines the impact of political instability on the investors' behavior, measured by Google search queries, and on the dynamics of stock market returns. Design/methodology/approach First, by using the DCC-GARCH model, the authors examine the effect of investor sentiment on the Tunisian stock market return. Second, the authors employ the fully modified dynamic ordinary least square method (FMOL) to estimate the long-term relationship between investor sentiment and Tunisian stock market return. Finally, the authors use the wavelet coherence model to test the co-movement between investor sentiment measured by Google Trends and Tunisian stock market return. Findings Using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC), the authors find that Google search queries index has the ability to reflect political events especially the Tunisian revolution. In addition, empirical results of fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) method reveal that Google search queries index has a slightly higher effect on Tunindex return after the Tunisian revolution than before this revolution. Furthermore, by employing wavelet coherence model, the authors find strong comovement between Google search queries index and return index during the period of the Tunisian revolution political instability. Moreover, in the frequency domain, strong coherence can be found in less than four months and in 16-32 months during the Tunisian revolution which show that the Google search queries measure was leading over Tunindex return. In fact, wavelet coherence analysis confirms the result of DCC that Google search queries index has the ability to detect the behavior of Tunisian investors especially during the period of political instability. Research limitations/implications This study provides empirical evidence to portfolio managers that may use Google search queries index as a robust measure of investor's sentiment to select a suitable investment and to make an optimal investments decisions. Originality/value The important research question of how political instability affects stock market dynamics has been neglected by scholars. This paper attempts principally to fill this void by investigating the time-varying interactions between market returns, volatility and Google search based index, especially during Tunisian revolution., DE-206 Namensnennung 4.0 International CC BY 4.0 cc https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, Aufsatz in Zeitschrift DE-206, Abbes, Mouna Boujelbène VerfasserIn (DE-588)1123305064 (DE-627)876654936 (DE-576)481740171 aut, Zouari, Sabrine VerfasserIn aut, Enthalten in Journal of capital markets studies Bingley : Emerald, 2017 4(2020), 1, Seite 61-76 Online-Ressource (DE-627)1013853148 (DE-600)2919974-8 (DE-576)49981424X 2514-4774 nnns, volume:4 year:2020 number:1 pages:61-76, https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JCMS-04-2020-0005/full/pdf?title=the-impact-of-political-instability-driven-by-the-tunisian-revolution-on-the-relationship-between-google-search-queries-index-and-financial-market-dynamics Verlag kostenfrei, https://doi.org/10.1108/JCMS-04-2020-0005 Resolving-System kostenfrei, https://doi.org/10.1108/JCMS-04-2020-0005 LFER, https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JCMS-04-2020-0005/full/pdf?title=the-impact-of-political-instability-driven-by-the-tunisian-revolution-on-the-relationship-between-google-search-queries-index-and-financial-market-dynamics LFER, LFER 2021-02-08T16:51:44Z
spellingShingle Trichilli, Yousra, Abbes, Mouna Boujelbène, Zouari, Sabrine, The impact of political instability driven by the Tunisian revolution on the relationship between Google search queries index and financial market dynamics, Purpose This paper examines the impact of political instability on the investors' behavior, measured by Google search queries, and on the dynamics of stock market returns. Design/methodology/approach First, by using the DCC-GARCH model, the authors examine the effect of investor sentiment on the Tunisian stock market return. Second, the authors employ the fully modified dynamic ordinary least square method (FMOL) to estimate the long-term relationship between investor sentiment and Tunisian stock market return. Finally, the authors use the wavelet coherence model to test the co-movement between investor sentiment measured by Google Trends and Tunisian stock market return. Findings Using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC), the authors find that Google search queries index has the ability to reflect political events especially the Tunisian revolution. In addition, empirical results of fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) method reveal that Google search queries index has a slightly higher effect on Tunindex return after the Tunisian revolution than before this revolution. Furthermore, by employing wavelet coherence model, the authors find strong comovement between Google search queries index and return index during the period of the Tunisian revolution political instability. Moreover, in the frequency domain, strong coherence can be found in less than four months and in 16-32 months during the Tunisian revolution which show that the Google search queries measure was leading over Tunindex return. In fact, wavelet coherence analysis confirms the result of DCC that Google search queries index has the ability to detect the behavior of Tunisian investors especially during the period of political instability. Research limitations/implications This study provides empirical evidence to portfolio managers that may use Google search queries index as a robust measure of investor's sentiment to select a suitable investment and to make an optimal investments decisions. Originality/value The important research question of how political instability affects stock market dynamics has been neglected by scholars. This paper attempts principally to fill this void by investigating the time-varying interactions between market returns, volatility and Google search based index, especially during Tunisian revolution., Aufsatz in Zeitschrift
title The impact of political instability driven by the Tunisian revolution on the relationship between Google search queries index and financial market dynamics
title_auth The impact of political instability driven by the Tunisian revolution on the relationship between Google search queries index and financial market dynamics
title_full The impact of political instability driven by the Tunisian revolution on the relationship between Google search queries index and financial market dynamics Yousra Trichilli, Mouna Boujelbène Abbes and Sabrine Zouari
title_fullStr The impact of political instability driven by the Tunisian revolution on the relationship between Google search queries index and financial market dynamics Yousra Trichilli, Mouna Boujelbène Abbes and Sabrine Zouari
title_full_unstemmed The impact of political instability driven by the Tunisian revolution on the relationship between Google search queries index and financial market dynamics Yousra Trichilli, Mouna Boujelbène Abbes and Sabrine Zouari
title_in_hierarchy The impact of political instability driven by the Tunisian revolution on the relationship between Google search queries index and financial market dynamics / Yousra Trichilli, Mouna Boujelbène Abbes and Sabrine Zouari,
title_short The impact of political instability driven by the Tunisian revolution on the relationship between Google search queries index and financial market dynamics
title_sort impact of political instability driven by the tunisian revolution on the relationship between google search queries index and financial market dynamics
topic Aufsatz in Zeitschrift
topic_facet Aufsatz in Zeitschrift
url https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/JCMS-04-2020-0005/full/pdf?title=the-impact-of-political-instability-driven-by-the-tunisian-revolution-on-the-relationship-between-google-search-queries-index-and-financial-market-dynamics, https://doi.org/10.1108/JCMS-04-2020-0005