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|a Macroeconomic effects of tariffs shocks
|b the role of the effective lower bound and the labour market
|c Pascal Jacquinot, Matija Lozej, Massimiliano Pisani
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|a We simulate a version of the EAGLE, a New Keynesian multi-country model of the world economy, to assess the macroeconomic effects of US tariffs imposed on one country member of the euro area (EA), and the rest of the world (RW). The model is augmented with an endogenous effective lower bound (ELB) on the monetary policy rate of the EA and country-specific labour markets with search-and-matching frictions. Our main results are as follows. First, tariffs produce recessionary effects in each country. Second, if the ELB holds, then the tariff has recessionary effects on the whole EA, even if it is imposed on one EA country and the RW. Third, if the ELB holds and the real wage is exible in the EA country subject to the tariff, or if there are segmented labour markets with directed search within each country, then the recessionary effects on the whole EA are amplified in the short run. Fourth, if the elasticity of substitution among tradables is low, then the tariff has recessionary effects on the whole EA also when the ELB does not hold.
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Jacquinot, Pascal, Lozej, Matija, Pisani, Massimiliano |
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We simulate a version of the EAGLE, a New Keynesian multi-country model of the world economy, to assess the macroeconomic effects of US tariffs imposed on one country member of the euro area (EA), and the rest of the world (RW). The model is augmented with an endogenous effective lower bound (ELB) on the monetary policy rate of the EA and country-specific labour markets with search-and-matching frictions. Our main results are as follows. First, tariffs produce recessionary effects in each country. Second, if the ELB holds, then the tariff has recessionary effects on the whole EA, even if it is imposed on one EA country and the RW. Third, if the ELB holds and the real wage is exible in the EA country subject to the tariff, or if there are segmented labour markets with directed search within each country, then the recessionary effects on the whole EA are amplified in the short run. Fourth, if the elasticity of substitution among tradables is low, then the tariff has recessionary effects on the whole EA also when the ELB does not hold. |
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Europäische Zentralbank: Working paper series |
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Europäische Zentralbank: Working paper series |
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Frankfurt am Main, Germany, European Central Bank, [2020] |
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Frankfurt am Main, Germany: European Central Bank, [2020] |
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DE-D117, DE-105, LFER, DE-Ch1, DE-15, DE-14, DE-Zwi2 |
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Macroeconomic effects of tariffs shocks: the role of the effective lower bound and the labour market |
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Europäische Zentralbank, Working paper series, no 2434 (June 2020) |
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Jacquinot, Pascal VerfasserIn (DE-588)171094638 (DE-627)061260312 (DE-576)131916149 aut, Macroeconomic effects of tariffs shocks the role of the effective lower bound and the labour market Pascal Jacquinot, Matija Lozej, Massimiliano Pisani, Frankfurt am Main, Germany European Central Bank [2020], 1 Online-Ressource (circa 64 Seiten) Illustrationen, Text txt rdacontent, Computermedien c rdamedia, Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier, Working paper series / European Central Bank no 2434 (June 2020), We simulate a version of the EAGLE, a New Keynesian multi-country model of the world economy, to assess the macroeconomic effects of US tariffs imposed on one country member of the euro area (EA), and the rest of the world (RW). The model is augmented with an endogenous effective lower bound (ELB) on the monetary policy rate of the EA and country-specific labour markets with search-and-matching frictions. Our main results are as follows. First, tariffs produce recessionary effects in each country. Second, if the ELB holds, then the tariff has recessionary effects on the whole EA, even if it is imposed on one EA country and the RW. Third, if the ELB holds and the real wage is exible in the EA country subject to the tariff, or if there are segmented labour markets with directed search within each country, then the recessionary effects on the whole EA are amplified in the short run. Fourth, if the elasticity of substitution among tradables is low, then the tariff has recessionary effects on the whole EA also when the ELB does not hold., Lozej, Matija VerfasserIn aut, Pisani, Massimiliano VerfasserIn (DE-588)1125637471 (DE-627)880293403 (DE-576)483512346 aut, Europäische Zentralbank Working paper series no 2434 (June 2020) 2434 (DE-627)372370322 (DE-576)108090442 (DE-600)2123559-4 1725-2806, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2434~2bd9b48e83.en.pdf Verlag kostenfrei, https://doi.org/10.2866/70884 Resolving-System kostenfrei, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/229048 Resolving-System kostenfrei, https://doi.org/10.2866/70884 LFER, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2434~2bd9b48e83.en.pdf LFER, LFER 2020-08-07T17:43:06Z |
| spellingShingle |
Jacquinot, Pascal, Lozej, Matija, Pisani, Massimiliano, Macroeconomic effects of tariffs shocks: the role of the effective lower bound and the labour market, Europäische Zentralbank, Working paper series, no 2434 (June 2020), We simulate a version of the EAGLE, a New Keynesian multi-country model of the world economy, to assess the macroeconomic effects of US tariffs imposed on one country member of the euro area (EA), and the rest of the world (RW). The model is augmented with an endogenous effective lower bound (ELB) on the monetary policy rate of the EA and country-specific labour markets with search-and-matching frictions. Our main results are as follows. First, tariffs produce recessionary effects in each country. Second, if the ELB holds, then the tariff has recessionary effects on the whole EA, even if it is imposed on one EA country and the RW. Third, if the ELB holds and the real wage is exible in the EA country subject to the tariff, or if there are segmented labour markets with directed search within each country, then the recessionary effects on the whole EA are amplified in the short run. Fourth, if the elasticity of substitution among tradables is low, then the tariff has recessionary effects on the whole EA also when the ELB does not hold. |
| title |
Macroeconomic effects of tariffs shocks: the role of the effective lower bound and the labour market |
| title_auth |
Macroeconomic effects of tariffs shocks the role of the effective lower bound and the labour market |
| title_full |
Macroeconomic effects of tariffs shocks the role of the effective lower bound and the labour market Pascal Jacquinot, Matija Lozej, Massimiliano Pisani |
| title_fullStr |
Macroeconomic effects of tariffs shocks the role of the effective lower bound and the labour market Pascal Jacquinot, Matija Lozej, Massimiliano Pisani |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Macroeconomic effects of tariffs shocks the role of the effective lower bound and the labour market Pascal Jacquinot, Matija Lozej, Massimiliano Pisani |
| title_in_hierarchy |
no 2434 (June 2020). Macroeconomic effects of tariffs shocks: the role of the effective lower bound and the labour market ([2020]) |
| title_short |
Macroeconomic effects of tariffs shocks |
| title_sort |
macroeconomic effects of tariffs shocks the role of the effective lower bound and the labour market |
| title_sub |
the role of the effective lower bound and the labour market |
| url |
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2434~2bd9b48e83.en.pdf, https://doi.org/10.2866/70884, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/229048 |
