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Mitigating the forward guidance puzzle: inattention, credibility, finite planning horizons and learning

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Personen und Körperschaften: De Groot, Oliver (VerfasserIn), Mazelis, Falk (VerfasserIn)
Titel: Mitigating the forward guidance puzzle: inattention, credibility, finite planning horizons and learning/ Oliver de Groot, Falk Mazelis
Format: E-Book
Sprache: Englisch
veröffentlicht:
Frankfurt am Main, Germany European Central Bank [2020]
Gesamtaufnahme: Europäische Zentralbank: Working paper series ; no 2426 (June 2020)
Quelle: Verbunddaten SWB
Lizenzfreie Online-Ressourcen
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contents This paper develops a simple, consistent methodology for generating empirically realistic forward guidance simulations using existing macroeconomic models by modifying expectations about policy announcements. The main advantage of our method lies in the exact preservation of all other shock transmissions. We describe four scenarios regarding how agents incorporate information about future interest rate announcements: "inattention", "credibility", "finite planning horizon", and "learning". The methodology consists of describing a single loading matrix that augments the equilibrium decision rules and can be applied to any standard DSGE, including large-scale policy-institution models. Finally, we provide conditions under which the forward guidance puzzle is resolved.
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spelling De Groot, Oliver VerfasserIn (DE-588)105496744X (DE-627)792456750 (DE-576)411042874 aut, Mitigating the forward guidance puzzle inattention, credibility, finite planning horizons and learning Oliver de Groot, Falk Mazelis, Frankfurt am Main, Germany European Central Bank [2020], 1 Online-Ressource (circa 32 Seiten), Text txt rdacontent, Computermedien c rdamedia, Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier, Working paper series / European Central Bank no 2426 (June 2020), This paper develops a simple, consistent methodology for generating empirically realistic forward guidance simulations using existing macroeconomic models by modifying expectations about policy announcements. The main advantage of our method lies in the exact preservation of all other shock transmissions. We describe four scenarios regarding how agents incorporate information about future interest rate announcements: "inattention", "credibility", "finite planning horizon", and "learning". The methodology consists of describing a single loading matrix that augments the equilibrium decision rules and can be applied to any standard DSGE, including large-scale policy-institution models. Finally, we provide conditions under which the forward guidance puzzle is resolved., Mazelis, Falk VerfasserIn (DE-588)1163665967 (DE-627)1028027125 (DE-576)50812400X aut, Europäische Zentralbank Working paper series no 2426 (June 2020) 2426 (DE-627)372370322 (DE-576)108090442 (DE-600)2123559-4 1725-2806, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2426~89ccf87cbc.en.pdf Verlag kostenfrei, https://doi.org/10.2866/082781 Resolving-System kostenfrei, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/229040 Resolving-System kostenfrei, https://doi.org/10.2866/082781 LFER, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2426~89ccf87cbc.en.pdf LFER, LFER 2020-08-07T17:43:04Z
spellingShingle De Groot, Oliver, Mazelis, Falk, Mitigating the forward guidance puzzle: inattention, credibility, finite planning horizons and learning, Europäische Zentralbank, Working paper series, no 2426 (June 2020), This paper develops a simple, consistent methodology for generating empirically realistic forward guidance simulations using existing macroeconomic models by modifying expectations about policy announcements. The main advantage of our method lies in the exact preservation of all other shock transmissions. We describe four scenarios regarding how agents incorporate information about future interest rate announcements: "inattention", "credibility", "finite planning horizon", and "learning". The methodology consists of describing a single loading matrix that augments the equilibrium decision rules and can be applied to any standard DSGE, including large-scale policy-institution models. Finally, we provide conditions under which the forward guidance puzzle is resolved.
title Mitigating the forward guidance puzzle: inattention, credibility, finite planning horizons and learning
title_auth Mitigating the forward guidance puzzle inattention, credibility, finite planning horizons and learning
title_full Mitigating the forward guidance puzzle inattention, credibility, finite planning horizons and learning Oliver de Groot, Falk Mazelis
title_fullStr Mitigating the forward guidance puzzle inattention, credibility, finite planning horizons and learning Oliver de Groot, Falk Mazelis
title_full_unstemmed Mitigating the forward guidance puzzle inattention, credibility, finite planning horizons and learning Oliver de Groot, Falk Mazelis
title_in_hierarchy no 2426 (June 2020). Mitigating the forward guidance puzzle: inattention, credibility, finite planning horizons and learning ([2020])
title_short Mitigating the forward guidance puzzle
title_sort mitigating the forward guidance puzzle inattention credibility finite planning horizons and learning
title_sub inattention, credibility, finite planning horizons and learning
url https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2426~89ccf87cbc.en.pdf, https://doi.org/10.2866/082781, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/229040