Strategic interactions and price dynamics in the global oil market

Gespeichert in:

Personen und Körperschaften:	Alonso Alvarez, Irma (VerfasserIn), Di Nino, Virginia (VerfasserIn), Venditti, Fabrizio (VerfasserIn)
Titel:	Strategic interactions and price dynamics in the global oil market/ Irma Alonso Alvarez, Virginia Di Nino, Fabrizio Venditti
Format:	E-Book
Sprache:	Englisch
veröffentlicht:	Frankfurt am Main, Germany European Central Bank [2020]
Gesamtaufnahme:	Europäische Zentralbank: Working paper series ; no 2368 (January 2020)
Quelle:	Verbunddaten SWB Lizenzfreie Online-Ressourcen


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contents	In a simplified theoretical framework we model the strategic interactions between OPEC and non-OPEC producers and the implications for the global oil market. Depending on market conditions, OPEC may find it optimal to act either as a monopolist on the residual demand curve, to move supply in-tandem with non-OPEC, or to offset changes in non-OPEC supply. We evaluate the implications of the model through a Structural Vector Auto Regression (VAR) that separates non-OPEC and OPEC production and allows OPEC to respond to supply increases in non-OPEC countries. This is done by either increasing production (Market Share Targeting) or by reducing it (Price Targeting). We find that Price Targeting shocks absorb half of the uctuations in oil prices, which have left unexplained by a simpler model (where strategic interactions are not taken into account). Price Targeting shocks, ignored by previous studies, explain around 10 percent of oil price uctuations and are particularly relevant in the commodity price boom of the 2000s. We confirm that the fall in oil prices at the end of 2014 was triggered by an attempt of OPEC to regain market shares. We also find the OPEC elasticity of supply three times as high as that of non-OPEC producers.
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spelling	Alonso Alvarez, Irma VerfasserIn aut, Strategic interactions and price dynamics in the global oil market Irma Alonso Alvarez, Virginia Di Nino, Fabrizio Venditti, Frankfurt am Main, Germany European Central Bank [2020], 1 Online-Ressource (36 Seiten) Diagramme, Text txt rdacontent, Computermedien c rdamedia, Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier, Working paper series / European Central Bank no 2368 (January 2020), Volltext: PDF, In a simplified theoretical framework we model the strategic interactions between OPEC and non-OPEC producers and the implications for the global oil market. Depending on market conditions, OPEC may find it optimal to act either as a monopolist on the residual demand curve, to move supply in-tandem with non-OPEC, or to offset changes in non-OPEC supply. We evaluate the implications of the model through a Structural Vector Auto Regression (VAR) that separates non-OPEC and OPEC production and allows OPEC to respond to supply increases in non-OPEC countries. This is done by either increasing production (Market Share Targeting) or by reducing it (Price Targeting). We find that Price Targeting shocks absorb half of the uctuations in oil prices, which have left unexplained by a simpler model (where strategic interactions are not taken into account). Price Targeting shocks, ignored by previous studies, explain around 10 percent of oil price uctuations and are particularly relevant in the commodity price boom of the 2000s. We confirm that the fall in oil prices at the end of 2014 was triggered by an attempt of OPEC to regain market shares. We also find the OPEC elasticity of supply three times as high as that of non-OPEC producers., b (DE-588)75351-8 (DE-627)101551894 (DE-576)190496738 OPEC gnd, s (DE-588)4152707-0 (DE-627)104724099 (DE-576)209797614 Erdölwirtschaft gnd, s (DE-588)4592334-6 (DE-627)534255299 (DE-576)214047253 Fördermenge gnd, s (DE-588)4136831-9 (DE-627)105654558 (DE-576)209672501 Erdölpreis gnd, s (DE-588)4175608-3 (DE-627)105362875 (DE-576)209964839 Preisänderung gnd, s (DE-588)4039798-1 (DE-627)106226576 (DE-576)209036699 Modell gnd, (DE-627), Di Nino, Virginia 1977- VerfasserIn (DE-588)132390833 (DE-627)521037476 (DE-576)299116522 aut, Venditti, Fabrizio VerfasserIn aut, Europäische Zentralbank Working paper series no 2368 (January 2020) 2368 (DE-627)372370322 (DE-576)108090442 (DE-600)2123559-4 1725-2806, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2368~bcb977be95.en.pdf Verlag kostenfrei, https://doi.org/10.2866/345156 Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/228982 Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext, https://doi.org/10.2866/345156 LFER, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2368~bcb977be95.en.pdf LFER, LFER 2020-02-03T00:00:00Z, DE-105 2021-09-06T13:46:03Z, finc FID-MONTAN-DE-105
spellingShingle	Alonso Alvarez, Irma, Di Nino, Virginia, Venditti, Fabrizio, Strategic interactions and price dynamics in the global oil market, Europäische Zentralbank, Working paper series, no 2368 (January 2020), In a simplified theoretical framework we model the strategic interactions between OPEC and non-OPEC producers and the implications for the global oil market. Depending on market conditions, OPEC may find it optimal to act either as a monopolist on the residual demand curve, to move supply in-tandem with non-OPEC, or to offset changes in non-OPEC supply. We evaluate the implications of the model through a Structural Vector Auto Regression (VAR) that separates non-OPEC and OPEC production and allows OPEC to respond to supply increases in non-OPEC countries. This is done by either increasing production (Market Share Targeting) or by reducing it (Price Targeting). We find that Price Targeting shocks absorb half of the uctuations in oil prices, which have left unexplained by a simpler model (where strategic interactions are not taken into account). Price Targeting shocks, ignored by previous studies, explain around 10 percent of oil price uctuations and are particularly relevant in the commodity price boom of the 2000s. We confirm that the fall in oil prices at the end of 2014 was triggered by an attempt of OPEC to regain market shares. We also find the OPEC elasticity of supply three times as high as that of non-OPEC producers., OPEC, Erdölwirtschaft, Fördermenge, Erdölpreis, Preisänderung, Modell
title	Strategic interactions and price dynamics in the global oil market
title_auth	Strategic interactions and price dynamics in the global oil market
title_full	Strategic interactions and price dynamics in the global oil market Irma Alonso Alvarez, Virginia Di Nino, Fabrizio Venditti
title_fullStr	Strategic interactions and price dynamics in the global oil market Irma Alonso Alvarez, Virginia Di Nino, Fabrizio Venditti
title_full_unstemmed	Strategic interactions and price dynamics in the global oil market Irma Alonso Alvarez, Virginia Di Nino, Fabrizio Venditti
title_in_hierarchy	no 2368 (January 2020). Strategic interactions and price dynamics in the global oil market ([2020])
title_short	Strategic interactions and price dynamics in the global oil market
title_sort	strategic interactions and price dynamics in the global oil market
topic	OPEC, Erdölwirtschaft, Fördermenge, Erdölpreis, Preisänderung, Modell
topic_facet	OPEC, Erdölwirtschaft, Fördermenge, Erdölpreis, Preisänderung, Modell
udk_facet_de105	Bergbau. Rohstoffgewinnung, Wirtschaftswissenschaften
udk_raw_de105	DK 622.323, QR 534
url	https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2368~bcb977be95.en.pdf, https://doi.org/10.2866/345156, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/228982