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Broner, Fernando, Clancy, Daragh, Erce, Aitor, Martin, Alberto |
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This paper explores a natural connection between fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt. Although fiscal expansions can raise domestic economic activity through various channels, they can also have crowding-out effects if the resources used to acquire public debt reduce domestic consumption and investment. These crowding-out effects are likely to be weaker when governments have access to foreign markets to place their debt, increasing the size of multipliers. We test this hypothesis on (i) post-war US data and (ii) data for a panel of 17 advanced economies from the 1980's to the present. To do so, we assemble a novel database of public debt holdings by domestic and foreign creditors for a large set of advanced economies. We combine this data with standard measures of fiscal policy shocks and show that, indeed, the size of fiscal multipliers is increasing in the share of public debt held by foreigners. In particular, the fiscal multiplier is smaller than one when the foreign share is low, such as in the U.S. in the 1950's and 1960's and Japan today, and larger than one when the foreign share is high, such as in the U.S. and Ireland today. |
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Frankfurt am Main, Germany, European Central Bank, [2019] |
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Broner, Fernando 1970- VerfasserIn (DE-588)129707465 (DE-627)478091672 (DE-576)297796275 aut, Fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt Fernando Broner, Daragh Clancy, Aitor Erce, Alberto Martín, Frankfurt am Main, Germany European Central Bank [2019], 1 Online-Ressource (circa 75 Seiten) Illustrationen, Text txt rdacontent, Computermedien c rdamedia, Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier, Working paper series / European Central Bank no 2255 (March 2019), This paper explores a natural connection between fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt. Although fiscal expansions can raise domestic economic activity through various channels, they can also have crowding-out effects if the resources used to acquire public debt reduce domestic consumption and investment. These crowding-out effects are likely to be weaker when governments have access to foreign markets to place their debt, increasing the size of multipliers. We test this hypothesis on (i) post-war US data and (ii) data for a panel of 17 advanced economies from the 1980's to the present. To do so, we assemble a novel database of public debt holdings by domestic and foreign creditors for a large set of advanced economies. We combine this data with standard measures of fiscal policy shocks and show that, indeed, the size of fiscal multipliers is increasing in the share of public debt held by foreigners. In particular, the fiscal multiplier is smaller than one when the foreign share is low, such as in the U.S. in the 1950's and 1960's and Japan today, and larger than one when the foreign share is high, such as in the U.S. and Ireland today., 1.1\x Öffentliche Schulden (DE-627)091381002 (DE-2867)11613-5 stw, 1.2\x Multiplikator (DE-627)091378958 (DE-2867)10251-4 stw, 1.3\x Internationale Staatsschulden (DE-627)091348986 (DE-2867)10797-2 stw, 1.4\x USA (DE-627)091396867 (DE-2867)17829-1 stw, 1.5\x Japan (DE-627)091369282 (DE-2867)17568-3 stw, Clancy, Daragh VerfasserIn aut, Erce, Aitor VerfasserIn (DE-588)137620195 (DE-627)594497906 (DE-576)304501255 aut, Martin, Alberto 1974- VerfasserIn (DE-588)132869365 (DE-627)527878766 (DE-576)299470156 aut, Europäische Zentralbank Working paper series no 2255 (March 2019) 2255 (DE-627)372370322 (DE-576)108090442 (DE-600)2123559-4 1725-2806, https://doi.org/10.2866/109192 Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2255~a3b6386eaa.en.pdf Verlag kostenfrei Volltext, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/208289 Resolving-System kostenfrei, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2255~a3b6386eaa.en.pdf LFER, LFER 2019-05-07T00:00:00Z |
| spellingShingle |
Broner, Fernando, Clancy, Daragh, Erce, Aitor, Martin, Alberto, Fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt, Europäische Zentralbank, Working paper series, no 2255 (March 2019), This paper explores a natural connection between fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt. Although fiscal expansions can raise domestic economic activity through various channels, they can also have crowding-out effects if the resources used to acquire public debt reduce domestic consumption and investment. These crowding-out effects are likely to be weaker when governments have access to foreign markets to place their debt, increasing the size of multipliers. We test this hypothesis on (i) post-war US data and (ii) data for a panel of 17 advanced economies from the 1980's to the present. To do so, we assemble a novel database of public debt holdings by domestic and foreign creditors for a large set of advanced economies. We combine this data with standard measures of fiscal policy shocks and show that, indeed, the size of fiscal multipliers is increasing in the share of public debt held by foreigners. In particular, the fiscal multiplier is smaller than one when the foreign share is low, such as in the U.S. in the 1950's and 1960's and Japan today, and larger than one when the foreign share is high, such as in the U.S. and Ireland today., Öffentliche Schulden, Multiplikator, Internationale Staatsschulden, USA, Japan |
| title |
Fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt |
| title_auth |
Fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt |
| title_full |
Fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt Fernando Broner, Daragh Clancy, Aitor Erce, Alberto Martín |
| title_fullStr |
Fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt Fernando Broner, Daragh Clancy, Aitor Erce, Alberto Martín |
| title_full_unstemmed |
Fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt Fernando Broner, Daragh Clancy, Aitor Erce, Alberto Martín |
| title_in_hierarchy |
no 2255 (March 2019). Fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt ([2019]) |
| title_short |
Fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt |
| title_sort |
fiscal multipliers and foreign holdings of public debt |
| topic |
Öffentliche Schulden, Multiplikator, Internationale Staatsschulden, USA, Japan |
| topic_facet |
Öffentliche Schulden, Multiplikator, Internationale Staatsschulden, USA, Japan |
| url |
https://doi.org/10.2866/109192, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2255~a3b6386eaa.en.pdf, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/208289 |
