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Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series
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| Veröffentlicht in: | Climate of the past discussions 8(2012), 5, Seite 1637-1648 |
|---|---|
| Personen und Körperschaften: | , , |
| Titel: | Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series/ M. Mudelsee, J. Fohlmeister, D. Scholz |
| Format: | E-Book-Kapitel |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| veröffentlicht: |
23 October 2012
|
| Gesamtaufnahme: |
: Climate of the past discussions, 8(2012), 5, Seite 1637-1648
, volume:8 |
| Quelle: | Verbunddaten SWB Lizenzfreie Online-Ressourcen |
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| 520 | |a A @fundamental problem in paleoclimatology is to take fully into account the various error sources when examining proxy records with quantitative methods of statistical time series analysis. Records from dated climate archives such as speleothems add extra uncertainty from the age determination to the other sources that consist in measurement and proxy errors. This paper examines three stalagmite time series of oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) from two caves in western Germany, the series AH-1 from the Atta Cave and the series Bu1 and Bu4 from the Bunker Cave. These records carry regional information about past changes in winter precipitation and temperature. U/Th and radiocarbon dating reveals that they cover the later part of the Holocene, the past 8.6 thousand years (ka). We analyse centennial- to millennial-scale climate trends by means of nonparametric Gasser-Müller kernel regression. Error bands around fitted trend curves are determined by combining (1) block bootstrap resampling to preserve noise properties (shape, autocorrelation) of the δ18O residuals and (2) timescale simulations (models StalAge and iscam). The timescale error influences on centennial- to millennial-scale trend estimation are not excessively large. We find a "mid-Holocene climate double-swing", from warm to cold to warm winter conditions (6.5 ka to 6.0 ka to 5.1 ka), with warm-cold amplitudes of around 0.5‰ δ18O; this finding is documented by all three records with high confidence. We also quantify the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the current warmth. Our analyses cannot unequivocally support the conclusion that current regional winter climate is warmer than that during the MWP. | ||
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| contents | A @fundamental problem in paleoclimatology is to take fully into account the various error sources when examining proxy records with quantitative methods of statistical time series analysis. Records from dated climate archives such as speleothems add extra uncertainty from the age determination to the other sources that consist in measurement and proxy errors. This paper examines three stalagmite time series of oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) from two caves in western Germany, the series AH-1 from the Atta Cave and the series Bu1 and Bu4 from the Bunker Cave. These records carry regional information about past changes in winter precipitation and temperature. U/Th and radiocarbon dating reveals that they cover the later part of the Holocene, the past 8.6 thousand years (ka). We analyse centennial- to millennial-scale climate trends by means of nonparametric Gasser-Müller kernel regression. Error bands around fitted trend curves are determined by combining (1) block bootstrap resampling to preserve noise properties (shape, autocorrelation) of the δ18O residuals and (2) timescale simulations (models StalAge and iscam). The timescale error influences on centennial- to millennial-scale trend estimation are not excessively large. We find a "mid-Holocene climate double-swing", from warm to cold to warm winter conditions (6.5 ka to 6.0 ka to 5.1 ka), with warm-cold amplitudes of around 0.5‰ δ18O; this finding is documented by all three records with high confidence. We also quantify the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the current warmth. Our analyses cannot unequivocally support the conclusion that current regional winter climate is warmer than that during the MWP. |
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| spelling | Mudelsee, Manfred VerfasserIn aut, Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series M. Mudelsee, J. Fohlmeister, D. Scholz, 23 October 2012, 12, Text txt rdacontent, Computermedien c rdamedia, Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier, Gesehen am 24.05.2018, A @fundamental problem in paleoclimatology is to take fully into account the various error sources when examining proxy records with quantitative methods of statistical time series analysis. Records from dated climate archives such as speleothems add extra uncertainty from the age determination to the other sources that consist in measurement and proxy errors. This paper examines three stalagmite time series of oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) from two caves in western Germany, the series AH-1 from the Atta Cave and the series Bu1 and Bu4 from the Bunker Cave. These records carry regional information about past changes in winter precipitation and temperature. U/Th and radiocarbon dating reveals that they cover the later part of the Holocene, the past 8.6 thousand years (ka). We analyse centennial- to millennial-scale climate trends by means of nonparametric Gasser-Müller kernel regression. Error bands around fitted trend curves are determined by combining (1) block bootstrap resampling to preserve noise properties (shape, autocorrelation) of the δ18O residuals and (2) timescale simulations (models StalAge and iscam). The timescale error influences on centennial- to millennial-scale trend estimation are not excessively large. We find a "mid-Holocene climate double-swing", from warm to cold to warm winter conditions (6.5 ka to 6.0 ka to 5.1 ka), with warm-cold amplitudes of around 0.5‰ δ18O; this finding is documented by all three records with high confidence. We also quantify the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the current warmth. Our analyses cannot unequivocally support the conclusion that current regional winter climate is warmer than that during the MWP., Fohlmeister, Janine VerfasserIn (DE-588)135586275 (DE-627)568583116 (DE-576)300529864 aut, Scholz, Denis VerfasserIn (DE-588)1160045003 (DE-627)1023140586 (DE-576)505462176 aut, Enthalten in Climate of the past discussions Katlenburg-Lindau : Copernicus Ges., 2005 8(2012), 5, Seite 1637-1648 Online-Ressource (DE-627)503750328 (DE-600)2212225-4 (DE-576)281293821 1814-9359 nnns, volume:8 year:2012 number:5 pages:1637-1648 extent:12, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1637-2012 Verlag Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext, https://www.clim-past.net/8/1637/2012/ Verlag kostenfrei Volltext, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1637-2012 LFER, LFER 2018-06-06T00:00:00Z |
| spellingShingle | Mudelsee, Manfred, Fohlmeister, Janine, Scholz, Denis, Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series, A @fundamental problem in paleoclimatology is to take fully into account the various error sources when examining proxy records with quantitative methods of statistical time series analysis. Records from dated climate archives such as speleothems add extra uncertainty from the age determination to the other sources that consist in measurement and proxy errors. This paper examines three stalagmite time series of oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) from two caves in western Germany, the series AH-1 from the Atta Cave and the series Bu1 and Bu4 from the Bunker Cave. These records carry regional information about past changes in winter precipitation and temperature. U/Th and radiocarbon dating reveals that they cover the later part of the Holocene, the past 8.6 thousand years (ka). We analyse centennial- to millennial-scale climate trends by means of nonparametric Gasser-Müller kernel regression. Error bands around fitted trend curves are determined by combining (1) block bootstrap resampling to preserve noise properties (shape, autocorrelation) of the δ18O residuals and (2) timescale simulations (models StalAge and iscam). The timescale error influences on centennial- to millennial-scale trend estimation are not excessively large. We find a "mid-Holocene climate double-swing", from warm to cold to warm winter conditions (6.5 ka to 6.0 ka to 5.1 ka), with warm-cold amplitudes of around 0.5‰ δ18O; this finding is documented by all three records with high confidence. We also quantify the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the current warmth. Our analyses cannot unequivocally support the conclusion that current regional winter climate is warmer than that during the MWP. |
| swb_id_str | 505462370 |
| title | Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series |
| title_auth | Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series |
| title_full | Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series M. Mudelsee, J. Fohlmeister, D. Scholz |
| title_fullStr | Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series M. Mudelsee, J. Fohlmeister, D. Scholz |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series M. Mudelsee, J. Fohlmeister, D. Scholz |
| title_in_hierarchy | Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series / M. Mudelsee, J. Fohlmeister, D. Scholz, |
| title_short | Effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series |
| title_sort | effects of dating errors on nonparametric trend analyses of speleothem time series |
| url | http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/cp-8-1637-2012, https://www.clim-past.net/8/1637/2012/ |