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Inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound: micro evidence from a large euro area survey

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Personen und Körperschaften: Duca, Ioana A. (VerfasserIn), Kenny, Geoff (VerfasserIn), Reuter, Andreas (VerfasserIn)
Titel: Inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound: micro evidence from a large euro area survey/ Ioana A. Duca, Geoff Kenny, Andreas Reuter
Format: E-Book
Sprache: Englisch
veröffentlicht:
Frankfurt am Main, Germany European Central Bank [2018]
Gesamtaufnahme: Europäische Zentralbank: Working paper series ; no 2196 (November 2018)
Quelle: Verbunddaten SWB
Lizenzfreie Online-Ressourcen
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author Duca, Ioana A., Kenny, Geoff, Reuter, Andreas
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contents This paper exploits a very large multi-country survey of consumers to investigate empirically the relationship between inflation expectations and consumer spending. We document that for the Euro Area and almost all of its constituent countries this relationship is generally positive: a higher expected change in inflation is associated with an increase in the probability that a given consumer will make major purchases. Moreover, in line with the predictions of macroeconomic theory, the impact is stronger when the lower bound on nominal interest rates is binding. Also, using the estimated spending probabilities from our micro-level analysis, we indirectly estimate the impact of a gradual increase in inflation expectations on aggregate private consumption. We find the effects to be economically relevant, especially when the lower bound is binding
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spelling Duca, Ioana A. VerfasserIn aut, Inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound micro evidence from a large euro area survey Ioana A. Duca, Geoff Kenny, Andreas Reuter, Frankfurt am Main, Germany European Central Bank [2018], 1 Online-Ressource (circa 50 Seiten) Illustrationen, Text txt rdacontent, Computermedien c rdamedia, Online-Ressource cr rdacarrier, Working paper series / European Central Bank no 2196 (November 2018), This paper exploits a very large multi-country survey of consumers to investigate empirically the relationship between inflation expectations and consumer spending. We document that for the Euro Area and almost all of its constituent countries this relationship is generally positive: a higher expected change in inflation is associated with an increase in the probability that a given consumer will make major purchases. Moreover, in line with the predictions of macroeconomic theory, the impact is stronger when the lower bound on nominal interest rates is binding. Also, using the estimated spending probabilities from our micro-level analysis, we indirectly estimate the impact of a gradual increase in inflation expectations on aggregate private consumption. We find the effects to be economically relevant, especially when the lower bound is binding, Kenny, Geoff VerfasserIn (DE-588)171434234 (DE-627)061634735 (DE-576)352856882 aut, Reuter, Andreas VerfasserIn (DE-588)1126278092 (DE-627)880877472 (DE-576)484461273 aut, Europäische Zentralbank Working paper series no 2196 (November 2018) 219600 (DE-627)372370322 (DE-576)108090442 (DE-600)2123559-4 1725-2806, http://dx.doi.org/10.2866/67230 Resolving-System kostenfrei Volltext, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2196.en.pdf Verlag kostenfrei Volltext, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/208230 Resolving-System kostenfrei, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2196.en.pdf LFER, LFER 2019-05-07T00:00:00Z
spellingShingle Duca, Ioana A., Kenny, Geoff, Reuter, Andreas, Inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound: micro evidence from a large euro area survey, Europäische Zentralbank, Working paper series, no 2196 (November 2018), This paper exploits a very large multi-country survey of consumers to investigate empirically the relationship between inflation expectations and consumer spending. We document that for the Euro Area and almost all of its constituent countries this relationship is generally positive: a higher expected change in inflation is associated with an increase in the probability that a given consumer will make major purchases. Moreover, in line with the predictions of macroeconomic theory, the impact is stronger when the lower bound on nominal interest rates is binding. Also, using the estimated spending probabilities from our micro-level analysis, we indirectly estimate the impact of a gradual increase in inflation expectations on aggregate private consumption. We find the effects to be economically relevant, especially when the lower bound is binding
title Inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound: micro evidence from a large euro area survey
title_auth Inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound micro evidence from a large euro area survey
title_full Inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound micro evidence from a large euro area survey Ioana A. Duca, Geoff Kenny, Andreas Reuter
title_fullStr Inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound micro evidence from a large euro area survey Ioana A. Duca, Geoff Kenny, Andreas Reuter
title_full_unstemmed Inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound micro evidence from a large euro area survey Ioana A. Duca, Geoff Kenny, Andreas Reuter
title_in_hierarchy no 2196 (November 2018). Inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound: micro evidence from a large euro area survey ([2018])
title_short Inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound
title_sort inflation expectations consumption and the lower bound micro evidence from a large euro area survey
title_sub micro evidence from a large euro area survey
title_unstemmed Inflation expectations, consumption and the lower bound: micro evidence from a large euro area survey
url http://dx.doi.org/10.2866/67230, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecb.wp2196.en.pdf, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/208230