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Detecting turning points in global economic activity
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| Personen und Körperschaften: | , , |
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| Titel: | Detecting turning points in global economic activity/ Ursel Baumann, Ramón Gómez Salvador, Franz Seitz |
| Format: | E-Book |
| Sprache: | Englisch |
| veröffentlicht: |
Frankfurt am Main, Germany
European Central Bank
[2019]
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| Gesamtaufnahme: |
Europäische Zentralbank: Working paper series ; no 2310 (August 2019)
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| Quelle: | Verbunddaten SWB Lizenzfreie Online-Ressourcen |
| Zusammenfassung: | We present non-linear models to capture the turning points in global economic activity as well as in advanced and emerging economies from 1980 to 2017. We first estimate Markov Switching models within a univariate framework. These models support the relevance of three business cycle regimes (recessions, low growth and high growth) for economic activity at the global level and in advanced and emerging economies. In a second part, we find that the regimes of the Markov Switching models can be well explained with activity, survey and commodity price variables within a discrete choice framework, specifically multinomial logit models, therefore reinforcing the economic interpretation of the regimes. |
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| Umfang: | 1 Online-Ressource (circa 28 Seiten); Illustrationen |
| ISBN: |
9789289938792
928993879X |
| DOI: | 10.2866/48191 |